Finding how 3 hunter can share their prey
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Three hunters hit the moving target with probabilities $0,6, 0,4$ and $0,2$. When they saw a deer they shot in one time. After it they saw that only one bullet reached the target. So how they can shere a prey?
I think first I need to find $mathbb{P}(X)$ where $X$ is event that deer was shot. $mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C)) $ am I right? When I will find it I will make a proportion and will find how they can share a prey.
So if I am right, I have problem. I think I am doing something wrong.
$mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C})) +mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) - mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}(Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) + mathbb{P}((overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))-mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) -
mathbb{P} (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) - mathbb{P}( (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+ mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))= ?$ Where is my mistake and how I can continue it? Maybe there is easier way?
probability probability-theory random-variables
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add a comment |
$begingroup$
Three hunters hit the moving target with probabilities $0,6, 0,4$ and $0,2$. When they saw a deer they shot in one time. After it they saw that only one bullet reached the target. So how they can shere a prey?
I think first I need to find $mathbb{P}(X)$ where $X$ is event that deer was shot. $mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C)) $ am I right? When I will find it I will make a proportion and will find how they can share a prey.
So if I am right, I have problem. I think I am doing something wrong.
$mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C})) +mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) - mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}(Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) + mathbb{P}((overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))-mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) -
mathbb{P} (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) - mathbb{P}( (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+ mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))= ?$ Where is my mistake and how I can continue it? Maybe there is easier way?
probability probability-theory random-variables
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add a comment |
$begingroup$
Three hunters hit the moving target with probabilities $0,6, 0,4$ and $0,2$. When they saw a deer they shot in one time. After it they saw that only one bullet reached the target. So how they can shere a prey?
I think first I need to find $mathbb{P}(X)$ where $X$ is event that deer was shot. $mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C)) $ am I right? When I will find it I will make a proportion and will find how they can share a prey.
So if I am right, I have problem. I think I am doing something wrong.
$mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C})) +mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) - mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}(Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) + mathbb{P}((overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))-mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) -
mathbb{P} (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) - mathbb{P}( (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+ mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))= ?$ Where is my mistake and how I can continue it? Maybe there is easier way?
probability probability-theory random-variables
$endgroup$
Three hunters hit the moving target with probabilities $0,6, 0,4$ and $0,2$. When they saw a deer they shot in one time. After it they saw that only one bullet reached the target. So how they can shere a prey?
I think first I need to find $mathbb{P}(X)$ where $X$ is event that deer was shot. $mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C)) $ am I right? When I will find it I will make a proportion and will find how they can share a prey.
So if I am right, I have problem. I think I am doing something wrong.
$mathbb{P}(X)=mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C})) +mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) - mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cup (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))=
mathbb{P}(Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) + mathbb{P}((overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))-mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+mathbb{P} (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C) -
mathbb{P} (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) - mathbb{P}( (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))+ mathbb{P}( (Acap overline{B}cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap B cap overline{C}) cap (overline{A}cap overline{B} cap C))= ?$ Where is my mistake and how I can continue it? Maybe there is easier way?
probability probability-theory random-variables
probability probability-theory random-variables
asked Dec 11 '18 at 4:49
AtstovasAtstovas
1139
1139
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1 Answer
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$begingroup$
$X$ should be the event the deer was shot exactly once, because that is the information you have. You are trying to assess $P(A|X)$, the chance that $A$ hit the deer given that exactly one person hit the deer, and the same for the other two. The probability that $A$ hit and the others did not is $0.6cdot (1-0.4) cdot (1-0.2)=0.288$. Compute the corresponding probability for the other two and scale up to make the sum be $1$.
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So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
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– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
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Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
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– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
add a comment |
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1 Answer
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1 Answer
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$begingroup$
$X$ should be the event the deer was shot exactly once, because that is the information you have. You are trying to assess $P(A|X)$, the chance that $A$ hit the deer given that exactly one person hit the deer, and the same for the other two. The probability that $A$ hit and the others did not is $0.6cdot (1-0.4) cdot (1-0.2)=0.288$. Compute the corresponding probability for the other two and scale up to make the sum be $1$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
$endgroup$
– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
$begingroup$
Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
add a comment |
$begingroup$
$X$ should be the event the deer was shot exactly once, because that is the information you have. You are trying to assess $P(A|X)$, the chance that $A$ hit the deer given that exactly one person hit the deer, and the same for the other two. The probability that $A$ hit and the others did not is $0.6cdot (1-0.4) cdot (1-0.2)=0.288$. Compute the corresponding probability for the other two and scale up to make the sum be $1$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
$endgroup$
– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
$begingroup$
Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
add a comment |
$begingroup$
$X$ should be the event the deer was shot exactly once, because that is the information you have. You are trying to assess $P(A|X)$, the chance that $A$ hit the deer given that exactly one person hit the deer, and the same for the other two. The probability that $A$ hit and the others did not is $0.6cdot (1-0.4) cdot (1-0.2)=0.288$. Compute the corresponding probability for the other two and scale up to make the sum be $1$.
$endgroup$
$X$ should be the event the deer was shot exactly once, because that is the information you have. You are trying to assess $P(A|X)$, the chance that $A$ hit the deer given that exactly one person hit the deer, and the same for the other two. The probability that $A$ hit and the others did not is $0.6cdot (1-0.4) cdot (1-0.2)=0.288$. Compute the corresponding probability for the other two and scale up to make the sum be $1$.
answered Dec 11 '18 at 4:57
Ross MillikanRoss Millikan
300k24200375
300k24200375
$begingroup$
So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
$endgroup$
– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
$begingroup$
Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
add a comment |
$begingroup$
So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
$endgroup$
– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
$begingroup$
Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
$begingroup$
So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
$endgroup$
– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
$begingroup$
So $mathbb{P}(A|X)=0.288$ $mathbb{P}(B|X)=0.192$ $mathbb{P}(C|X)=0.048$ than $0.288+0.192+0.048=0,528$ Whats next? For first hunter it will be $ 0.288/0.528=0.(54)$ for second $0.192/0.528=0.(36)$ and for third hunter $0.048/0.528=0.(09)$ right?
$endgroup$
– Atstovas
Dec 11 '18 at 5:45
$begingroup$
Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
$begingroup$
Your result is correct but your notation is wrong. Based on your calculation $P(A|X)=frac {54}{99}$ which is what you mean by $0.(54)$
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
Dec 11 '18 at 5:54
add a comment |
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